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13 Aug 2014
RBA rate on hold until late 2015 - NAB
FXStreet (Bali) - Alan Oster, Group Chief Economist at NAB, continues to bet for the RBA cash rate on hold until late 2015, with risk of cut(s) rising if unemployment worse than forecast.
Key Quotes
"Weak retail trade and net exports point to soft GDP growth in Q2. Employment continues to drift: jump in unemployment rate looks like quirk from ABS measurement changes (which probably added 0.2 points to unemployment)"
"Partial indicators generally better: business conditions jump to four year high, while, business confidence, orders and capacity utilisation all looking better. But headwinds remain, especially high AUD, declining mining investment and fiscal restraint."
"Australian forecasts revised down in 2014/15 (3.1%, was 3.3%), up in 2015/16 (3.2%, was 3.0%). Official unemployment rate to peak at 6½% by end 2014 (was 6¼%) and only slowly improve (6.2% by end 2015). Cash rate on hold until late 2015 but risk of cut(s) rise if unemployment is worse than forecast."
Key Quotes
"Weak retail trade and net exports point to soft GDP growth in Q2. Employment continues to drift: jump in unemployment rate looks like quirk from ABS measurement changes (which probably added 0.2 points to unemployment)"
"Partial indicators generally better: business conditions jump to four year high, while, business confidence, orders and capacity utilisation all looking better. But headwinds remain, especially high AUD, declining mining investment and fiscal restraint."
"Australian forecasts revised down in 2014/15 (3.1%, was 3.3%), up in 2015/16 (3.2%, was 3.0%). Official unemployment rate to peak at 6½% by end 2014 (was 6¼%) and only slowly improve (6.2% by end 2015). Cash rate on hold until late 2015 but risk of cut(s) rise if unemployment is worse than forecast."