US: Nonfarm Payrolls probably surged again in July – TDS

Previewing next week's key macroeconomic data releases from the US, TD Securities analysts said they expect Nonfarm Payrolls to surge again in July, "with the pace up a bit from the +850k in June."

Key quotes

"Some acceleration in the private sector is suggested by the Homebase data, while government payrolls probably benefited from favorable seasonal adjustments. We forecast another 0.3% m/m rise in average hourly earnings. The 12-month change is likely to rise again to 3.8% from 3.6% in June."

"Mixed but slightly positive signals from regional data suggest improvement relative to June for the ISM surveys. At around 60, the June readings were still consistent with strong growth, although both came off of recent highs (the 64.0 reading for services in May was an all-time high). The boosts to growth from "reopening" and fiscal stimulus have probably peaked."